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Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City releases Fourth Quarter Energy Survey (posted 1/12/2026)
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI –The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the fourth quarter Energy Survey today. According to Cortney Cowley, assistant vice president and Oklahoma City Branch executive at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Tenth District energy activity fell sharply, with further contraction expected in the next six months.
"Tenth District drilling and business activity decreased to its lowest level since 2020," said Cowley. "One reason for these declines was that WTI oil prices fell below District firms’ average profitable price of $61 per barrel in Q4 2025. Moving forward, the outlook for investment in 2026 is mixed, with similar shares of firms planning to increase investment, decrease investment, or leave it unchanged."
The Kansas City Fed’s quarterly Tenth District Energy Survey provides information on current and expected activity among energy firms in the Tenth District. The survey monitors oil and gas-related firms located and/or headquartered in the Tenth District, with results based on total firm activity. Survey results reveal changes in several indicators of energy activity, including drilling, capital spending, and employment. Firms also indicate projections for oil and gas prices. All results are diffusion indexes – the percentage of firms indicating increases minus the percentage of firms indicating decreases.
A summary of the survey is attached. Results from past surveys and release dates for future surveys can be found at https://www.kansascityfed.org/surveys/energy-survey.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City serves the Tenth Federal Reserve District, encompassing the western third of Missouri; all of Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Wyoming; and the northern half of New Mexico. As part of the nation’s central bank, the Bank participates in setting national monetary policy, supervising and regulating numerous commercial banks and bank holding companies, and providing financial services to depository institutions.
More information is available online at www.kansascityfed.org.
The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City or the Federal Reserve System.
TENTH DISTRICT ENERGY SUMMARY
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY
Fourth quarter energy survey results showed that Tenth District energy activity fell sharply, with further contraction expected in the next six months. Firms reported that oil prices needed to be on average $61 per barrel for drilling to be profitable, and $75 per barrel for a substantial increase in drilling to occur. Natural gas prices needed to be $3.80 per million Btu for drilling to be profitable on average, and $4.89 per million Btu for drilling to increase substantially.
Summary of Quarterly Indicators
Tenth District energy activity fell sharply in the fourth quarter of 2025, as indicated by firms contacted between Dec. 15, 2025, and Dec. 31, 2025 (Tables 1 & 2). The quarter-over-quarter drilling and business activity index was -39 in Q4, down from -16 in Q3 and from -17 in Q2 (Chart 1). Revenues and profits fell further from their lowest levels in two years, now at -33 and -42 respectively. However, employment levels only contracted modestly at -3.
Drilling activity also decreased from this time last year, with the year-over-year drilling/business activity index falling from -24 to -50 in Q4. Revenues and profits fell further, and accordingly, capital expenditures fell from -18 to -39. Employment levels stayed steady from last year, but the employee hours index remained in negative territory at -14.
Firms anticipated further declines in drilling activity, revenues, profits, employment, and capital expenditures in the next six months. The expected drilling activity index fell from 0 to -19 and expected revenues decreased from 3 to -22, the lowest readings in over two years.
Summary of Special Questions
Firms were asked what oil and natural gas prices were needed on average for drilling to be profitable across the fields in which they are active. The average oil price needed was $61 per barrel (Chart 2), while the average natural gas price needed was $3.80 per million Btu (Chart 3). Firms were also asked what prices were needed for a substantial increase in drilling to occur across the fields in which they are active. The average oil price needed was $75 per barrel (Chart 2), and the average natural gas price needed was $4.89 per million Btu (Chart 3).
Firms reported what they expected oil and natural gas prices to be in six months, one year, two years, and five years. The average expected WTI prices were $57, $62, $69, and $73 per barrel, respectively. The average expected Henry Hub natural gas prices were $3.69, $4.05, $4.35, and $4.93 per million Btu, respectively.
Firms were asked their expectations for capital spending and employment levels for 2026 compared to 2025. Expectations for capital expenditures were mixed, with 9% expecting a significant increase, 29% a slight increase, 34% expecting similar levels to 2025, 17% expecting a slight decrease, and 11% expecting a significant decrease. A majority of firms (60%) expect employment to remain close to 2025 levels, while 3% expect a significant increase, 9% expect a slight increase, 25% expect a slight decrease, and another 3% expect a significant decrease.
Contacts were also asked how they expect rising U.S. power demand to affect natural gas demand, prices, and drilling activity relevant to their firm over the next five years. A majority of firms (62%) expect it will modestly increase demand and support somewhat higher prices and drilling activity, and another 29% expect it will materially increase demand and support substantially higher prices and drilling activity. Only 9% expect little effect on demand, prices, or drilling activity.
Selected Energy Survey Comments
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY
"Our company is not making money at current oil prices. We do not see that current reserve development is warranted."
"We need help in prices."
"Lots of uncertainty but better long-term prospects."
"High OPEC production pushing down global oil price."
"I am hopeful if oil prices fall below $55, that Permian producers will cut back and that will lower supply and we can see a rebound late 2026."
"It looks like demand should build slowly."
"Low capital investment will eventually lead to tighter supply. Inflation drivers will push prices up."
"The sweet spot for oil prices where companies make acceptable profits, but it's not too high to impact economic activity is $70-$80/barrel."
"AI energy requirements will create more demand for natural gas."
"Adequate supply to meet forecasted demand."
"The shoulder months with lower demand have weak pricing, and I think we keep seeing that until data center and LNG demand is large enough to compete with injections."
"A lot of new demand with LNG and electric generation, but gas is plentiful and fairly quick to bring online. Infrastructure seems to be catching up."
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WYDOT unveils new Rodeo, Search and Rescue specialty license plates (posted 1/5/2026)
Wyoming Department of Transportation
The Wyoming Department of Transportation is unveiling two new specialty license plates that will be available to the public starting January 1, 2026.
The Rodeo and Search and Rescue specialty plates were created by the Wyoming Legislature during the 2025 session, and both plates aim to raise funds for Wyoming causes. Applications for each plate will be available in January, and both plates can be purchased through a County Treasurer or WYDOT.
The Search and Rescue plate
The Search and Rescue specialty license plate features a winter rescue scenario.
In addition to standard registration and specialty plate fees, the plate will cost $150 the first year and has a $50 annual renewal fee. The additional fees go toward Search and Rescue activities within the state. There is also an option for additional voluntary donations toward the cause.
A select number of plates with low or special numbers will be sold at auction in early 2026. All auction earnings will go toward search and rescue activities in the state. More information will be announced.
At least 1,000 plates must be sold by 2032 for the plate to be a permanent specialty plate offered by WYDOT.
The Rodeo plate
The new Rodeo specialty license plate features an historic photo of Steamboat, the iconic bucking horse that is now a symbol for the state, courtesy of the University of Wyoming. The plates also note rodeo as the official sport of Wyoming.
Beyond standard vehicle registration and specialty plate fees, the plate includes the voluntary opportunity to donate $20 or more to the rodeo programs at the University of Wyoming and Wyoming community colleges.
A select number of plates with low or special numbers will be sold at auction in early 2026. All auction earnings will go toward Wyoming collegiate rodeo programs. More information will be announced.
At least 500 plates must be sold by 2031 for the Rodeo plate to be a permanent specialty plate offered by WYDOT.
Game and Fish enters next phase in feedground management plans (posted 1/5/2026)
Wyoming Game and Fish Department
The Wyoming Game and Fish Department will move forward in 2026 with developing Feedground Management Action Plans, a key component of the broader Wyoming Elk Feedgrounds Plan.
As part of the Game and Fish’s statewide Chronic Wasting Disease Management Plan, the Wyoming Elk Feedgrounds Plan was established to guide the department’s overall and long-term approach to elk management for the 21 feedgrounds in the state. The Wyoming Game and Fish Commission approved the final draft of this strategy in March 2024, following nearly four years of collaborative planning with more than 60 volunteer stakeholders.
The development of individual FMAPs is the next step in this process, and the department will be working closely with stakeholders and the public to address key concerns and priorities.
"Game and Fish remains committed to the management of our state’s feedgrounds in an adaptable manner that utilizes the best science available," said Game and Fish Director Angi Bruce. "Supplemental winter feeding of elk has continued to grow in complexity. These plans will allow us to adjust to current and future conditions in feedground management."
Specific FMAPs will be developed for each of the six elk herds and their corresponding feedgrounds in the Jackson and Pinedale regions. They are intended to be a playbook of strategies guiding feedground management through biological, social and economic factors. FMAPs are designed to be adaptable as on-the-ground-conditions change and science emerges.
Game and Fish will work closely with key stakeholders and the public during this development phase. In early 2026, draft FMAP documents will be shared during a series of public meetings. They will be presented to the Game and Fish Commission later that year.
USPS shipping service prices to increase Jan. 18, 2026 (posted 1/5/2026)
The U.S. Postal Service (USPS) is increasing shipping service prices by 5-8% starting January 18, 2026, including hikes for Priority Mail (6.6%), Ground Advantage (7.8%), Priority Mail Express (5.1%), and Parcel Select (6%). The price of a First-Class Mail stamp will remain unchanged for now.
The United States Postal Service is an independent federal establishment, mandated to be self-financing and to serve every American community through the affordable, reliable and secure delivery of mail and packages to more than 170 million addresses six and often seven days a week. Overseen by a bipartisan Board of Governors, the Postal Service is celebrating its 250th year of service to customers amidst a network modernization plan aimed at restoring long-term financial sustainability, improving service, and maintaining the organization. The Postal Service generally receives no tax dollars for operating expenses and relies on the sale of postage, products and services to fund its operations.
Source: U.S. Postal Service Recommends New Competitive Prices for 2026 usps.com, Nov. 14, 2025
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Illegals who self-deport by end of year can get free flight home and $3K stipend (posted 12/22/2025)
Department of Homeland Security
WASHINGTON – The Department of Homeland Security is continuing to deliver this holiday season on its promise to help illegal aliens in the United States return home.
Illegal aliens who sign up to self-deport through the CBP Home app by the end of the year will receive a $3,000 stipend in addition to a free flight home. Using the CBP Home app also qualifies recipients for forgiveness of any civil fines or penalties for failing to depart the country.
"Since January 2025, 1.9 million illegal aliens have voluntarily self-deported and tens of thousands have used the CBP Home program. During the Christmas Season, the U.S. taxpayer is so generously TRIPLING the incentive to leave voluntarily for those in this country illegally - offering a $3,000 exit bonus, but just until the end of the year," said Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. "Illegal aliens should take advantage of this gift and self-deport because if they don’t, we will find them, we will arrest them, and they will never return."
Self-deportation through the CBP Home app (https://www.dhs.gov/cbphome) is the best gift that an illegal alien can give themselves and their families this holiday season. It’s a fast, free, and easy process: Just download the app, fill out your information, and DHS will take care of the rest – including arranging and paying for your travel back home.
Those illegal aliens who don’t take advantage of this special offer today have only one alternative: They will be arrested, deported, and they will never be able to return to the United States.
BLM approves Dry Piney helium and carbon sequestration project (posted 12/17/2025)
Bureau of Land Management
PINEDALE, WYOMING — The Bureau of Land Management today (December 17, 2025) approved the Dry Piney helium and carbon sequestration project planned on public, private, and state lands near LaBarge in Sublette County. The project is estimated to be capable of producing more than 800 million cubic feet of bulk liquid helium per year from subsurface mineral estates.
With this approval, Blue Spruce Operating, LLC, may construct a natural gas plant to process and separate raw gas streams into saleable helium and methane products. The project includes nine gas production wells, access roads, buried gathering and utility lines, a natural gas residue sales pipeline, and an acid-gas injection facility to permanently sequester excess carbon in federal pore space deep underground. Commercial operations are expected to begin during the summer of 2028.
Additional information, including the decision record, environmental assessment, finding of no significant impact, and other planning documents are available at the BLM National NEPA Register. For more information, contact the Pinedale Field Office, at 307-367-5300 or BLM_WY_Pinedale_WYMail@blm.gov.
Governor Gordon advances consideration of Sublette antelope migration corridor (posted 12/13/2025)
Applications for local working group members accepted until Dec. 31
Governor Gordon media release
CHEYENNE, WYOMING - Governor Mark Gordon (R-WY) announced today (December 10, 2025) that he will proceed with the consideration of the Sublette antelope migration corridor, following the recommendation from the Wyoming Game and Fish Commission to officially designate the pathway.
"My determination is that work on the Sublette Antelope Migration Corridor will proceed, with focus on the Wyoming Game and Fish Department’s recommendation of the eight segments within the identified corridor for designation consideration, including North, Bondurant, Foothills, East of WY -191, Central, Southwest, Fontenelle, and Calpet. This decision is underscored by the best available scientific information on the value, conservation risks and opportunities detailed along these routes," Governor Gordon said.
The Governor’s actions follow steps outlined in the Executive Order 2020-1 (EO), Wyoming Mule Deer and Antelope Migration Corridor Protection. The Wyoming Game and Fish Commission identified the Sublette antelope corridor in March 2025, the first step in the official Corridor Designation and Review Process. The Commission voted to advance the corridor for designation to the Governor in September 2025.
Next the Governor will appoint a local working group to analyze and evaluate the corridor. As outlined in the EO, the local working group will be composed of an appointed representative from each county affected, to include Teton, Sublette, Lincoln, and Sweetwater.
"The Migration Corridor Conservation Strategy established by the Executive Order creates a state-led approach to support conservation for mule deer and pronghorn migration while preserving multiple-use opportunities for the State of Wyoming. I look forward to the next steps as the corridor is reviewed and elevated by a diverse local working group," Governor Gordon said.
The Governor has opened an application process for prospective representatives from the following groups, as detailed in the EO:
• Agriculture (2 representatives)
• Industrial users - oil, gas, mining and renewable (2 representatives)
• Wildlife/conservation/hunting (2 representatives)
• Motorized recreation (1 representatives)
The local working group is ultimately charged with reviewing the Game and Fish’s risk assessment, corridor components, potential impacts to socio-economic conditions of the region, conservation opportunities, highway projects, and other factors appropriate to the potential designation. Following their analysis, the working group will make a final recommendation to Governor Gordon, who has the authority to either designate the corridor, return the recommendation to Game and Fish for refinement, or reject the proposal for designation.
Applications for the working group will be accepted until Wednesday, Dec. 31. Following the Governor will review prospective representatives and make final appointments. Questions regarding the local working group and process should be directed to Sara DiRienzo, deputy director of policy at sara.dirienzo1@wyo.gov.
Seasonal closures approach for WHMAs (posted 11/28/2025)
Wyoming Game and Fish Department
CHEYENNE, WYOMING — Seasonal closures for Wyoming Game and Fish Department Wildlife Habitat Management Areas are in place or will be enforced soon. These closures are important in protecting wildlife on their winter range.
"Seasonal closures are essential for minimizing stress-causing disturbances to wintering deer, elk, bighorn sheep and other wildlife," said Ray Bredehoft, Game and Fish Deputy Chief of Services. "These closures also reduce the human and recreational impacts to forage, which supports wildlife on their winter ranges."
Game and Fish maintains more than 500,000 acres of land through WHMAs. The areas include access to nearly 225 miles of streams, more than 21,000 lake surface acres and more than 148 miles of road right-of-ways. Management of these areas plays an important role in maintaining healthy winter habitats for species.
Closure dates of WHMAs can vary. For specific area details, visit the WHMA page on the Game and Fish website (https://wgfd.wyo.gov/Public-Access/WHMA.
The page contains maps, general regulations and rules governing each unique area.
Here are the WHMA’s in the Pinedale area:
Half Moon Pinedale Dec. 1-April 30 Closed to human presence.
Soda Lake Pinedale Dec. 1-April 30. Closed to human presence.
Fall Creek Pinedale Dec. 1-April 30. Closed to human presence.
Luke Lynch Pinedale Nov. 1-April 30.
Closed to vehicle traffic Nov 1-Dec 1. Closed to all human presence Dec 1- April 30.
Black Butte Pinedale Dec. 1-April 30. Closed to human presence.
Source and more info: https://wgfd.wyo.gov/news-events/seasonal-closures-approach-whmas
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